Stopping greenhouse gas emissions will not stop global warming
In a new study, scientists have shown that even with an instant stop of atmospheric emissions (which is, in principle, impossible from a technical point of view), the temperature on Earth will continue steadily grow.
Scientists themselves believe that their work requires several checks, but even their preliminary conclusions are far from rosy.
The planet is slowly but surely warming up
According to recent studies, the temperature of the planet today is 1.2 degrees Celsius higher than the level of the mid-19th century.
It is from this time period that a gradual rise in temperature begins, which scientists associate with industrial emissions from industry.
Scientists from the Norwegian Business School BI used in their forecasts a model called ESCIMO, and made a prediction of the average temperature on the planet up to 2500.
In doing so, two possible scenarios were considered:
- Complete and immediate cessation of all emissions.
- Phased decline by 2100.
Of course, the first option is practically impossible. But if we imagine that it is possible, then even in this case, the planet will still continue to heat up by over the next decades and only then will it begin to cool down and return to pre-industrial indicators.
Scientists associate this process with the fact that a huge amount of water vapor has already been accumulated in the atmosphere, and melting of permafrost (which supports itself) will not reduce the concentration of water vapor in atmosphere.
Therefore, scientists believe that simply stopping all emissions into the atmosphere is no longer enough. It is imperative to artificially pump out excess carbon dioxide and preserve it.
It is probably already clear that the second scenario is significantly worse for our Planet. So, according to calculations, the peak temperature may come in 2075 and will be 2.3 degrees higher than the pre-industrial level.
By 2150, all ice, with the exception of Greenland and Antarctica, will simply cease to exist, and the level of the world's oceans will rise by almost three meters.
Of course, scientists once again emphasize that their findings require additional verification and even call on other scientists to participate in the verification process.
But in the initial data, the confidence is 100% and already at the moment the content of CO2 has reached its historical maximums over the past 23 million years.
The scientific work of scientists was published in magazine Scientific Reports
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