I asked the director of the base: what is the reason for such an increase in prices for sawn timber? Got a detailed answer
It took a small amount of lumber. I had to spend a lot of time searching. Many producers do not have lumber, they also have timber, and they will start sawing only at the beginning of June. In the spring this happens to some, until the forest roads are dry. Although, many are trying to stock up on wood at the end of winter. But all this has never led to such a sharp increase in wood prices as this year - 50% in half a year!
I found one base (and within the city limits and not far from the area where I live) - there we stocked up on wood. But the price, as elsewhere - 15,000 rubles / m3. After payment, while the truck was waiting, I decided to ask the owner of this database about the reasons for such a sharp increase in prices.
The answer was this. Of course, the reason for everything is a sharp increase in demand. But not from our citizens, but from the citizens of China, who have organized a fairly large business for the acquisition, processing of timber into lumber and sending it to their territory. They have built large workshops for wood processing (in our forest regions). Their increased demand for timber is related to demand in their country. It turned out that there is a whole chain of economic events. In short, here are some of them.
It is known that China is the world leader in the supply of final products derived from wood. As a rule, these are plywood, OSB and kiln-dried sawn timber. China acquires most of its timber from Russia. But there is also Australia, which has strained relations with China in the supply of raw materials, including timber. China bought forests there by $ 2 billion / year. Now China has completely abandoned the supply of timber from Australia.
These are not just words in conversation. Here are links to economic news on the topic:
https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/4558605
https://forestcomplex.ru/lesozagotovka/avstralijcy-daryat-2-mlrd-dollarov-rossiyanam-v-kitae
Back in the US, the supply of lumber from Canada was allegedly limited under pressure from the "green". And the USA is the world's largest consumer of sawn timber for the construction of its private sector in the form of frame houses. Almost no other materials are built there.
There is also Brazil, I have not looked at information on it. But even these changes in the global macroeconomics were enough for China to switch almost all the demand for timber to Russia. And since the price of lumber has grown not only in Siberia, it must be assumed that they are buying up timber throughout Russia - from the Perm Territory to Khabarovsk.
With such a yuan-to-ruble exchange rate, it is not profitable for the Chinese themselves to work in Russia. But buying up raw materials, processing and sending them to you is a profitable business.
Moreover, if this demand continues, then the price of sawn timber will continue to grow. Even a schoolchild already understands what our government needs to introduce export protective duties. Otherwise, prices on the domestic market for sawn timber will become cosmic. Only millionaires will be able to build houses for themselves (probably already only dollar ones). Yes, and the reconstruction of any roof on the old Khrushchevs will be golden. Gostorgs will arise in the construction topic. With the constant and rapid rise in the cost of materials, nothing can be planned.
Why don't our officials decide anything? Free market, you say? Why is it needed, if prices for everything in the country will rise by such methods, the people will become even poorer. But on the other hand, only a few entrepreneurs will be enriched by raising prices in the domestic market.
The situation in the ferrous metal market is even worse. There, too, everything began to be exported and the domestic market was broken. A rise in price by 100-120% in six months, and as they say, is not the limit. An article about it is here: Why have prices for building materials increased by 1.5-2 times in six months? Understanding the reasons
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