Construction professions are in crisis: who will be provided with jobs in 2020-2021

The crisis that is now looming over the whole world is not only the COVID-19 pandemic and its consequences, but also the collapse in oil prices, provoking a new financial fever. Whole industries are already suffering from this: tourism, transport, trade. According to the forecast of the Ministry of Labor, in the coming months, up to 230 thousand Russians will remain unemployed, and independent sources assure that by the end of the year over 9 million people will become unemployed in the country. How this will affect construction specialties and the service market - let's figure it out.

Crisis in large arenas

The collapse of the construction market was predicted by experts back in 2019. No, they are not prophets and did not see the future - the construction industry has not yet recovered from the 2014 crisis. The fall in the construction market is primarily due to high taxes, a shortage of orders, high cost of building materials and structures, insolvency of customers. But even with these factors, the situation remained stable and controlled until the beginning of 2020. It is not difficult to guess what will happen in the new realities - a lot of specialists will lose their jobs.

Another blow awaits the large construction business - a sharp decline in the paying capacity of the population. Imagine for a moment that some people will lose their jobs and remain below the poverty line, while others will have significantly reduced income. These people will not be able to receive and pay off mortgage loans, which threatens to drop consumer demand for housing. By the way, the share of mortgage housing is 46% of the total market. It is not difficult to guess here how much the construction industry will fall and what layoffs it threatens. This situation, according to analysts, will last at best until mid-2021, and at worst until 2023.

Small arena crisis

Small businesses involved in the provision of construction services are in for a no less upsetting picture. Many small firms and teams directly depend on large contractors, and it is not known whether there will be orders from them. A decrease in the incomes of the population will make adjustments to the work of small teams and foremen - some orders from the private sector will be postponed until better times. The number of orders for emergency services for electricity, water supply, sewerage, heating will remain at the same level: there is no getting around here - if a pipe breaks - call the brigade! Planned construction work will be reduced by 25–35%.

The situation will be complicated not only by the drop in orders, but also by the increasing competition. The contracted builders will not sit and wait for vacancies, but will start looking for work in the private sector. Increased competition will lead to lower prices for services, which will knock the watchdog of this business out of their usual comfort zone. Subsequently, someone will be able to work for a penny, and someone will dissolve the state and close. Here the law of business rules - the more workers there are, the less payment for services.

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What construction professions will be in demand

Everyone will be in demand in one way or another, but conditions will change dramatically. Demand for low-skilled specialties will decrease. Simply put, if in good times, when there are orders, you can hire extra workers to carry building materials or knead concrete, now all this will be done mainly by themselves. With a decrease in prices for work, low-skilled personnel are always reduced.

But the demand will increase for universal craftsmen and brigades who can perform turnkey work from the foundation to wallpapering. Instability will force the performers to be greedy and do the maximum amount of work on the site themselves. And it will be more profitable for a customer from the private sector to receive a comprehensive offer from one team than to hire diversified firms.

Private sector-focused construction companies will have a hard time, as the number of calls to them will decrease, and keeping the state on a leash in an unstable situation is very expensive. If there are large-scale funded orders from large players, then there is no problem, and counting on a free market during a crisis is a lottery.

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And, of course, the demand at any time will be for golden hands - these are highly qualified masters, narrow-profile specialists, whose work no one can handle. If such a master is left out of work in a large company, then he just needs to show an entrepreneurial streak and the job will be!

What do you think about the current situation in the labor market? Write in the comments, share your experience - how you survived the crisis of the 90s.

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