In the US, sawnwood prices have returned to their previous level. Will our prices go down?
Everyone who is faced with construction in this 2021 season knows that sawn timber has risen in price by 1.7-2 times. And somewhere else. I wrote about the reasons in this article. In short, our producers have experienced a shortage of timber due to a significant increase in timber exports abroad. And there, on the exchanges in May 2020. prices increased by 2 times compared to last year.
Both abroad and in our large cities, the demand for suburban construction has increased. There are also many smaller factors added. Such as: China stopped buying wood from Australia and switched this volume to the Russian Federation, regulations on increasing the share of biomaterials in construction, etc., were introduced in France.
In July, I purchased lumber at 22 thousand. rub / m3. Could have been ordered for 18 thous. rub / m3, but it was necessary to wait 1-2 weeks. In May, we had another 15 thousand. rub. Our prices are lagging behind in response to global demand.
And, perhaps, good news appeared for those who are planning to build a house, a summer residence, a fence. On the US commodity exchanges, sawnwood prices dropped to last year's values:
Apparently, in the United States, after the spring boom, developers began to refuse to purchase building materials at prices many times higher than the adequate market values. Demand fell and quotations returned to last year's values. How will this affect prices in the Russian Federation? Exports will decrease and there will be more offers on the domestic market. Lumber will appear everywhere in stock. And since it is about winter, seasonal demand will also fall, construction depots and sawmills will have to compete in price.
But, here, knowing the mentality of our entrepreneurs, no one can guarantee a 100% reduction in prices for sawn timber. My example at the last purchase of lumber. I bought boards at the base, where they themselves saw from the imported wood last year (purchased, probably at a price of 3-5 thousand rubles / m3). And they sell for 22 thousand. rub. Whoever needs it urgently - they go to them. With this margin, they are happy with gross margins even when sales are low.
Prices in the region of 17-20 thousand. rub / m3 can be saved forever. Probably no one will roll them back. The logic is this: prices are high on the neighboring base, there is demand in the market, why should I lower the price?
I believe that our prices will not decrease until there is a high demand for suburban construction. And this will happen only when the borders are opened. So that those who can build, went to rest abroad.
I propose to take a survey and see the opinions of other readers.