A long-term strategy for low-carbon development of Russia will probably rely on a peaceful atom and forests

As it became known, the main document on the strategy of low-carbon development of the Russian economy was sent for approval to the government of the Russian Federation.

So the decision on the election of the main vector of Russia's development will be made by the end of this year, and this decision will determine the range of tasks for decades to come.

There is an assumption that Russia will be able to outstrip the pace of decarbonization in Europe, and the main role in this will be played by the peaceful atom and natural projects.

Thus, the document under consideration provides for four main scenarios for a significant reduction in greenhouse gas emissions and one has to be chosen.

But in each of the possible scenarios, the rejection of the use of coal in favor of nuclear energy is spelled out, and also a significant strengthening of natural resources (as the main source of carbon dioxide absorption gas).

So the scripts are conventionally divided into:

1. Inertial.
2. Base.
3. Intensive.
4. Aggressive.

Thus, according to the last two points, an almost twofold increase in the share of nuclear energy from the current 20 to 37% is envisaged, as a result of which the share of coal should be reduced from the current 13% to 5%. At the same time, as it is emphasized, a complete rejection of the use of coal is impossible, and in Russia there are regions where its (coal) use is 100% justified.

In addition, the contribution of forests growing on the territory of the Russian Federation to the decarbonization of our economy will also be revised. This will change the principle of calculating CO2 absorption, since the existing calculation is recognized as inaccurate.

According to the proposed new methodology, since 2023 it has been proposed to consider the absorptive capacity of forests equal to 1.1 billion tons of CO2 per calendar year, and according to the old method, this figure is only 590 million tons CO2.

Also, according to the strategy, the main role in renewable energy will be played not by solar panels and wind generators, but by nuclear power plants and hydroelectric power plants. And according to the plan, by 2050, nuclear and hydroelectric power plants should account for up to 73% of the entire energy sector.

And according to the baseline scenario, by 2050 the Russian Federation should reduce its emissions below the EU (European Union), and if a decision is made to move according to an aggressive plan, then by this year Russia can achieve full carbon neutrality.

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