Scientists warned about a flu pandemic 17 years ago. The country was also named
If we discard the speculation about the influenza pandemic and take into account the forecasts of scientists published back in 2003, then the current situation with the coronavirus COVID-19 is quite fits into the framework of the assumptions then expressed and confirms the presence of a number of patterns and a certain periodicity in the appearance of outbreaks of respiratory infections in the global scale.
It is about article "Influenza pandemic planning" in Vaccine, which was published in the May 2003 issue on (p. 1801-1803). This material is publicly available, but it is paid, but even a short annotation to this article contains very interesting data. If you delve into the English-language electronic archive, you can easily find it.
For translation, I used an online translator, which produced the following text with some corrections, containing both a historical background and a forecast:
“Periodically, new influenza viruses emerge and spread rapidly among susceptible populations, leading to global epidemics or pandemics. Three pandemics occurred in the 20th century. The first and most destructive of them, pandemic "Spanish flu" (A / H1N1) 1918-1919is estimated to have caused 20-50 million or more deaths worldwide, with unusually high mortality among young adults.
Mortality associated with pandemics "Asian influenza" 1957 (A / H2N2) and "Hong Kong influenza" 1968 (A / H3N2), was less severe with the highest excess mortality observed in the elderly and those with chronic diseases. However, significant morbidity, social disruption, and economic loss occurred during both of these pandemics.
Taking into account historical data and modern ideas about biology, ecology and epidemiology of influenza, it is quite logical to assume that influenza pandemics will continue in the future. Influenza viruses cannot be eradicated as there is a large reservoir of all influenza A, B virus subtypes in wild aquatic birds. In densely populated agricultural communities such as China, there are conditions for the emergence and spread of pandemic viruses.
It is also impossible to predict when the next pandemic will occur. In addition, the severity of the disease is also unpredictable, so emergency plans need to be developed now between pandemics. These plans need to be flexible enough to respond to different levels of disease. "
So, it is obvious that for the knowledgeable specialists, the appearance of a pandemic was a matter of time. And since the last major epidemic was recorded back in 1968, it seems that we have witnessed the emergence of a new wave of mass incidence of severe influenza.
It remains to take care of yourself and be prudent, applying all available precautions. Good luck and health!
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